Top of main content
Investment Daily: US stocks and Treasuries edged higher before PCE inflation print

28 Jun 2024

Key takeaways

  • US stocks and Treasuries were higher before PCE data.
  • European stocks fell; government bonds ended little changed.
  • Asian stocks mostly declined.

Markets

  • US equities edged higher on Thursday, as investors digested a batch of mixed economic data releases while awaiting the first US presidential debate and PCE inflation data. The S&P 500 was up 0.1%.    
  • US Treasuries rose (yields fell) amid mixed macro data, including a downward revision to Q1 personal consumption, a solid 7-year Treasury debt auction result, and quarter-/month-end portfolio rebalancing flows. 10-year yields slid 4bp to 4.29%.   
  • European stock markets were mixed but mostly down on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.3%. The German DAX rose 0.3% whereas the French CAC dropped 1.0%. In the UK, the FTSE-100 ended down 0.6%.  
  • European government bonds traded sideways ahead of key US inflation data and the first round of French lower house elections on Sunday. 10-year German yields were unchanged at 2.45%. 10-year French yields rose 4bp to 3.27%, with the spread over German peers refreshing the widest level over a decade. In the UK, 10-year gilt yields ended flat at 4.13%.
  • Asian stock markets mostly fell on Thursday before the US presidential debate and the US PCE inflation print. Chinese equities declined on weak industrial profit data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.1%, with China’s Shanghai Composite losing 0.9%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 0.8% amid lingering concerns over further yen weakness. Elsewhere, India’s Sensex bucked the regional trend, closing 0.7% higher. 
  • Crude oil prices extended gains on Thursday on worries about global crude supply due to geopolitical risks in Middle East and Europe. WTI crude for August delivery settled 1.0% higher at USD81.7 a barrel.  

Key Data Releases and Events

Releases yesterday

  • The Swedish central bank, Riksbank, left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% but signaled 2 to 3 rate cuts in H2 2024 provided that the recent favourable trend in inflation continues.
  • In the US, Q1 GDP was revised higher 0.1% to a 1.4% qoq annualised rate, in line with market expectations. Pending home sales fell 2.1% mom in May, from a downwardly revised 7.7% mom decline in April, below market consensus and pointing to a further decline in new home sales in the near-term. Durable goods orders increased 0.1% mom in May after a downwardly-revised 0.2% mom rise in April, hinting at softer equipment investment in Q2 2024.

Releases due today (28 June 2024)

  • In Japan, Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy edged up to 1.8% yoy in June from 1.7% yoy in May, slightly above the market consensus of 1.7% yoy. 
  • US core PCE inflation, the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, is expected to decline to 2.6% yoy in May from 2.8% yoy in April. 
  • US University of Michigan consumer confidence index is forecast to be revised up to 66.0 from a preliminary estimate of 65.6.

Start Your Financial Health Check

Take your financial health check and that will help you to understand your needs, make and achieve your financial plan

Wealth Management

Your goals are unique to you. We’ll help you reach them – first by assessing your situation, then by helping you put a plan in place

Related Insights

April’s improved US inflation data and a less hawkish Fed tone suggest that a Fed rate... [26 Jun]
For its seventh consecutive meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the benchmark... [18 Jun]
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in almost five years, and did not wait for the Fed to... [18 Jun]

Disclaimer

WARNING: THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED BY ANY REGULATORY AUTHORITY IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION. YOU ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN RELATION TO THE INVESTMENT AND THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU ARE IN DOUBT ABOUT ANY OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT, YOU SHOULD OBTAIN INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL ADVICE.

This document has been issued by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited (the “Bank”) in the conduct of its regulated business in China. It is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. The contents of this document may not be reproduced or further distributed to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. This document must not be distributed to the United States, Canada or Australia or to any other jurisdiction where its distribution is unlawful. All non-authorised reproduction or use of this document will be the responsibility of the user and may lead to legal proceedings.

This document has no contractual value and is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment [in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not lawful] or subscribe for, or to participate in, any services. The Bank is not recommending or soliciting any action based on it.

The information stated and/or opinion(s) expressed in this document are provided by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited. We do not undertake any obligation to issue any further publications to you or update the contents of this document and such contents are subject to changes at any time without notice. They are expressed solely as general market information and/or commentary for general information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell investments or guarantee of returns. Do not rely on it for any investment or financial decisions.

The Bank and HSBC Group and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document (or in any related investments) (if any) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities or financial instruments or investments. The Bank and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities or financial instruments discussed in this document (or in related investments) (if any), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies.

The information contained within this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal circumstances. Please note that this information is neither intended to aid in decision making for legal, financial or other consulting questions, nor should it be the basis of any investment or other decisions. You should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in any product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives. The relevant product offering documents should be read for further details.

Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward-looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future events. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Such statements do not represent any one investment and are used for illustration purpose only. Customers are reminded that there can be no assurance that economic conditions described herein will remain in the future. Actual results may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. We can give no assurance that those expectations reflected in those forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct or come to fruition, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. We do not undertake any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained herein, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, or to update the reasons why actual results could differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance contained in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance whilst any forecasts, projections and simulations contained herein should not be relied upon as an indication of future results. Past performance information may be out of date. For up-to-date information, please contact your Relationship Manager.

Investment in any market may be extremely volatile and subject to sudden fluctuations of varying magnitude due to a wide range of direct and indirect influences. Such characteristics can lead to considerable losses being incurred by those exposed to such markets. If an investment is withdrawn or terminated early, it may not return the full amount invested. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuations in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in certain jurisdictions. Narrowly focused investments and smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility. There is no guarantee of positive trading performance. Investments in emerging markets are by their nature higher risk and potentially more volatile than those inherent in some established markets. Economies in emerging markets generally are heavily dependent upon international trade and, accordingly, have been and may continue to be affected adversely by trade barriers, exchange controls, managed adjustments in relative currency values and other protectionist measures imposed or negotiated by the countries with which they trade. These economies also have been and may continue to be affected adversely by economic conditions in the countries in which they trade. Investment schemes are subject to market risks. You should read all scheme related documents carefully.

Copyright © HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited