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Investment Daily: US stocks rose after upbeat retail sales data and bank earnings

17 Jul 2024

Key takeaways

  • US stocks and Treasuries rose after upbeat retail sales.
  • European stocks fell; government bonds rose.
  • Asian stocks were mixed.

Markets

  • US equities advanced on Tuesday, as retail sales data signalled consumers’ resilience and spurred soft-landing hopes. Market sentiment was also helped by some upbeat bank earnings. The S&P 500 ended 0.6% higher. The rotation from mega tech stocks to small-caps and some cyclical sectors continued.
  • US Treasuries rose (yields fell) despite upbeat retail sales data. 10-year yields fell 7bpto 4.16%.
  • European stock markets fell on Tuesday, dragged down by further disappointing Q2 earnings. The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.7%. The German DAX and the French CAC fell 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. In the UK, the FTSE-100 was down 0.2%.
  • European government bonds rose (yields fell) ahead of ECB policy decision on Thursday, shrugging off an upside surprise in US retail sales. 10-year German yields fell 4bp to 2.43% while 10-year French yields fell 3bp to 3.08%. In the UK, 10-year gilt yields inched down 5bp to 4.05%.
  • Asian stock markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed US political developments and awaited policy signals from China’s 3rd plenum. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng extended losses, ending down 1.6% amid lingering investor worries over geopolitical risks and the macro outlook. China’s Shanghai Composite ended little changed (+0.1%) after the sovereign fund reportedly purchased ETFs in the onshore market. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.2% as India’s Sensex was up 0.1%.
  • Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday, extending Monday’s losses amid lingering concerns about the global/China’s oil demand outlook. WTI crude for August delivery settled 1.4% lower at USD80.8 a barrel.

Key Data Releases and Events

Releases yesterday

  • US retail sales was unchanged in June, above market expectations. May’s data was revised higher, hinting at resilient consumer spending.
  • In the euro area, the ECB’s latest quarterly bank lending survey revealed improving lending conditions, with households faring better than companies.  

Releases due today (17 July 2024)

  • In the UK, CPI is expected to nudge lower to 1.9% yoy in June from 2.0% yoy in July, as service sector inflation remains sticky amid elevated wage growth.
  • The Eurozone’s final June CPI data should confirm moderating service sector inflation on a mom basis while goods disinflation persists.
  • US housing starts are expected to increase to 1.8% mom in June, from a 5.5% mom drop in May. Industrial production is forecast to moderate to a 0.3% mom increase in June, after May’s 0.7% mom rise.

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