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Daily FX Focus

7 Mar 2025

Important Risk Disclosure

  • Investment involves risk.  It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and you may not get back the amountoriginally invested.
  • Past performance contained in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
  • Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to othercurrencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal.

 

EUR

Support / Resistance

vs USD  1.0477 / 1.0971  ⬆

EUR fell against the dollar yesterday after ECB cut interest rates again and hinted more cuts ahead though warned that trade wars and defense spending could fuel inflation. EURUSD fell 0.04% yesterday while EURHKD ended at 8.38 level.

GBP

Support / Resistance

vs USD  1.2651 / 1.3019  ⬆

GBP ended lower against the dollar yesterday as trade war fears weigh on market sentiment. BoE remains cautious on rate cuts, while UK construction sector contracted to May 2020 levels. GBPUSD fell 0.10% yesterday while GBPHKD ended at 10.01 level.

AUD

vs USD  0.6208 / 0.6431 ⬆

AUD fell against the dollar yesterday as investors were reassessing risk appetite. Australia’s GDP data exceeded expectations, but trade policy concerns overshadowed gains, pressuring AUD. AUDUSD fell 0.03% yesterday while AUDHKD ended at 4.92 level.

NZD

Support / Resistance

vs USD  0.5621 / 0.5810  ⬆  

NZD rose against the dollar yesterday and refreshed weekly high after Chinese officials left the door for additional monetary stimulus. While easing Trump tariff fears have diminished the risk premium of the USD. NZDUSD rose 0.14% yesterday while NZDHKD ended at 4.45 level.

CAD

Support / Resistance

vs USD  1.4121 / 1.4506  ⬆

CAD ended higher against the dollar yesterday after Trump is set to reprieve tariffs on automobiles from Canada and Mexico. While investors await the employment data for Feb from both the US and Canada. USDCAD fell 0.30% yesterday while CADHKD ended at 5.43 level.

JPY

Support / Resistance

vs USD  146.03 / 151.13   ⬆

JPY rose against the dollar yesterday and briefly touched the strongest level since early October, boosted by anticipation of BOJ raising interest rates and narrowing rate differential with the US. USDJPY fell 0.60% yesterday while JPYHKD ended at 5.25 level.

Data source: Refinitiv, dated 7 Mar 2025 before 9:30 am

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Terminology

‘Support level’ is the level where the exchange rate tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up rather than go lower.

‘Resistance level’ is the level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further.

We derive the support and resistance level using ‘Pivot Points’ which takes into account the high, low and close prices in the prior period of 15 days. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is 0 - 100 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >70 and oversold conditions when <30.

Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency’s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or ‘noise’, that can confuse interpretation.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) : is a type of oscillator that can measure market momentum as well as follow or indicate the trend. The convention for the MACD analysis is to use an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). MACD consists of two lines, the MACD Line and the Signal Line. The MACD Line measures the difference between a short moving average and a long moving average. The Signal Line is a moving average of the MACD Line.

This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.Customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Disclaimer

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The contents of this document are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified.

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